Despite the factors of uncertainty, bullish bets on the Mexican currency in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) increased during the first three months of the year, closing the period with a positive balance.
In dollar terms, positions in favor of the peso in the CME rose from 915 million, to 1,780 million from December 2017 to March 20 of this year, according to information published by Bloomberg.
The figures of the CME are a key indicator because they show the confidence of the investors with respect to the peso in the derivatives market, instruments that serve to cover or transfer risks.
The Mexican currency accumulates, a few days after the end of the first quarter of 2018, an advance of 7.23 percent and is the one that shows the best performance among those belonging to emerging markets.
The exchange rate of the peso against the dollar has oscillated in the last weeks within a wide range, between 19 and 18.30 units.
The currency has withstood negative pressures from the rise in the benchmark rate of the US Federal Reserve and the protectionist trade wave unleashed by Donald Trump, which can lead to a trade war with countries like China.
Although Mexican currency has been positive, it is noticed that the situation could become somewhat negative derived from internal factors such as elections and by the evolution of external commercial conflicts.
“The risks of a depreciation could be accentuated during the next sessions as the market remains nervous about a possible trade war between the United States and its second largest trading partner, China,” said Gabriela Siller, head of the analysis area of Banco Base.
According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg, the exchange rate could exceed 19 units during the second quarter of 2018, up from the close of 18,544 last Friday.