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International Monetary Fund forecasts brighter global economic activity

Christine Lagarde, director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), announced that the agency raised its forecast for world growth to 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, including Mexico, although she said that vulnerabilities still predominate, suggesting to seize the moment for reforms.

According to new calculations, the world economy grew by 3.7 percent, one tenth more than in his previous forecast published during its annual assembly last year. According to IMF estimates, global improvement is perceived in economies around the world.

For Latin America, the IMF maintains its growth forecasts in 2018 at 1.9 percent and increases by two tenths those of 2019, to 2.6 percent due to the consolidation of the recovery in Brazil and the better prospects in Mexico.

The IMF figures Brazil’s growth at 1.9 percent for 2018, four tenths more than its previous forecast, and Mexico’s at 2.3 percent, also four tenths above what was calculated in October.

In 2019, the Brazilian economy will advance 2.1 percent, one tenth more and Mexican 3 percent, seven tenths more.

The IMF recognizes a “renewed uncertainty” about the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada, Mexico and the US, but believes that Mexico will receive a boost due to the increase in US demand associated with the recent tax reform adopted by the United States.

Almost half of the IMF’s new global upward revision is due to the increase in US growth forecasts, which go from 2.3 percent calculated in October to 2018 to 2.7 percent now and from 1.9 percent to 2.5 percent in the case of 2019.

On the other hand, China, the great Asian locomotive, will continue moderating its growth gradually, but with rates of 6.6 percent this year and 6.4 percent next, in both cases a tenth more than the figures of October, for the greater external demand.

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